House prices....

missfire · 04-10-11, 09:50 PM

Value your opinions on here as this place has a 'broad spectrum'. Where you think they are going, not where you hope they are going.

Trying hard to convince myself NOT to buy a house.. yet..

It takes some balls!(not buying a house)

- House price to earnings ratios are still wayyy off, anywhere between 4.4:1 and 6:1 depending on who's figures you use.

- If you look at the 30 year mean trend line, valuations are still possibly 80% too high! (as in a £100k house is still being valued at £180k)

- Possibility that we've just had a kind of cassic bull market trap, though only enough really to keep things standing still.

So....

Where are prices going..?? because I'm finding it hard to tell the bullsh*t from the truth here, though I'm convinced that prices have a long way to fall yet.

missfire · 04-10-11, 10:03 PM

I'd like to think 20% so that i could just bloody buy one now.

Just realised that my poll options are a bit sh*t, but you know what I mean..

eg: no 25% option..

missfire · 04-10-11, 10:54 PM

mistake on first post.. have '%' on the brain.. fixed now.

earnings ratios, 6:1 not 6 %...

most of the pointers say hold off until maybe april'ish 2012..

i can't vote because i don't know! so i have to sign out to see the results..

rich.r · 05-10-11, 06:24 AM

you keep talking to yourself like that and the men in white coats will find you somewhere to stay

seriously i cant see much movement in any direction

i think it will stay fairly static for a year or two

more people are extending where they live not many people are moving up the ladder and if prices slump there will be a rush to buy and drive prices back up

just my opinion and i would never tell people to use a house as an investment first and foremost its a home to live in

Daveymaclad · 05-10-11, 06:43 AM

House prices are unlikely to shift by a significant amount for the following reasons:

1. Demand still outstrips supply - this is key
2. Many people don't need to move, if their house is valued at less than they think it should be worth, they won't move. My mum is a case in point. Valued at £250k, bought in 1993 @ £60k still no sale at £200k so she's just taking it off the market!
3. Banks have so much vested in housing that they'll do what they can to maintain house prices. People think the banks can't wait to get people to surrender their houses but that only increases their losses as firesales tend to be dramatically below market prices meaning the banks potentially receive less money back than they lent out (ok they can sue you for their losses but if you're broke you're broke!). Firesales lead to crashing house prices meaning the mortgage lenders would have people asking for lower mortgages reducing their earnings and profits.

Long story short there are plenty of factors trying their damndest to keep prices where they are.

Go buy, but do so within your budget. All will be well! Besides, if it's a house for life, do you overly care if the house value decreases for a few years?

Coxy · 05-10-11, 06:47 AM

As Rich says, doubt you'll see much in any movement over the next 12-18 months.

Too many high up people stand to lose too much to see the market drop substantially, and I don't think there's much chance of seeing any significant price rise for around 2-3 years at least. It is a good time too buy, but a lot of people of extending/improving their current homes rather than moving as a lot of people have negative equity on their house and couldn't move if they wanted to.

Your handy enough to buy one that needs some work and do it up. Best way to get a bargain at the moment.

stuartmmcfc · 05-10-11, 08:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coxy

Your handy enough to buy one that needs some work and do it up. Best way to get a bargain at the moment.

have you been watching "Homes under the hammer"instead of grafting??

Coxy · 06-10-11, 06:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stuartmmcfc

have you been watching "Homes under the hammer"instead of grafting??

Only Escape to the Country!!

grafting is overrated rated, 6 weeks of it and I'm beat, but it's been well worth it considering what ours was like when we moved here.

pwjackson · 06-10-11, 10:12 AM

I agree with Coxy, but if you're anything like my missus you want to move in there straight away (I think the impatience comes with being a Primary School teacher) you'll want a house that's fully kitted out, I've been trying to argue my point with her that she'll get much more for her money, but she's the one with the said money and I'm the poor designer. I guess its sort of like buying a car with no tax or MOT, you can be fairly sure it'll be alright, but it might throw up some nasty surprises.

I think the house prices will fall a little bit but there's a shit load of people buying to let, I went down a road near Fallowfield (prime student area) the other day and there were about 10 houses with to let signs and only one to sell, these are the douches who are keeping the prices high so us young ones can't get on the property ladder unless we are prepared to live on a council estate with scroungers with 5 kids.

So in summary, I reckon house prices will more or less stay the same at the bottom to mid end and go lower at the top end.

foxracing · 06-10-11, 11:15 AM

It's a well known fact that houses in this country are over valued by at least 40%. Hopefully they will all drop to their true value and then people can afford to buy again.

View Poll Results: Where are house prices going?
Up..	4	14.29%
Nowhere	13	46.43%
down 10-20%	5	17.86%
down 30-40%	4	14.29%
down 40%+	2	7.14%
Voters: 28. You may not vote on this poll

05-10-11, 06:43 AM	#5
Daveymaclad 4 ring whore! Classic Audi Club Member Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Bursledon - Southampton Posts: 2,575	House prices are unlikely to shift by a significant amount for the following reasons: 1. Demand still outstrips supply - this is key 2. Many people don't need to move, if their house is valued at less than they think it should be worth, they won't move. My mum is a case in point. Valued at £250k, bought in 1993 @ £60k still no sale at £200k so she's just taking it off the market! 3. Banks have so much vested in housing that they'll do what they can to maintain house prices. People think the banks can't wait to get people to surrender their houses but that only increases their losses as firesales tend to be dramatically below market prices meaning the banks potentially receive less money back than they lent out (ok they can sue you for their losses but if you're broke you're broke!). Firesales lead to crashing house prices meaning the mortgage lenders would have people asking for lower mortgages reducing their earnings and profits. Long story short there are plenty of factors trying their damndest to keep prices where they are. Go buy, but do so within your budget. All will be well! Besides, if it's a house for life, do you overly care if the house value decreases for a few years? __________________ 2008 RS6 avant SOLD 1988 UR Quattro

04-10-11, 10:03 PM	#2
missfire making wooden things Classic Audi Club Member Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: cow land Posts: 8,154	I'd like to think 20% so that i could just bloody buy one now. Just realised that my poll options are a bit sh*t, but you know what I mean.. eg: no 25% option..

04-10-11, 10:54 PM	#3
missfire making wooden things Classic Audi Club Member Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: cow land Posts: 8,154	mistake on first post.. have '%' on the brain.. fixed now. earnings ratios, 6:1 not 6 %... most of the pointers say hold off until maybe april'ish 2012.. i can't vote because i don't know! so i have to sign out to see the results..

05-10-11, 06:24 AM	#4
rich.r Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 1,832	you keep talking to yourself like that and the men in white coats will find you somewhere to stay seriously i cant see much movement in any direction i think it will stay fairly static for a year or two more people are extending where they live not many people are moving up the ladder and if prices slump there will be a rush to buy and drive prices back up just my opinion and i would never tell people to use a house as an investment first and foremost its a home to live in

05-10-11, 06:47 AM	#6
Coxy 4 Ring Mafia Classic Audi Club Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: on the side of a hill in Shropshire! Posts: 28,215	As Rich says, doubt you'll see much in any movement over the next 12-18 months. Too many high up people stand to lose too much to see the market drop substantially, and I don't think there's much chance of seeing any significant price rise for around 2-3 years at least. It is a good time too buy, but a lot of people of extending/improving their current homes rather than moving as a lot of people have negative equity on their house and couldn't move if they wanted to. Your handy enough to buy one that needs some work and do it up. Best way to get a bargain at the moment.

06-10-11, 10:12 AM	#9
pwjackson Grown up member Classic Audi Club Member Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 26	I agree with Coxy, but if you're anything like my missus you want to move in there straight away (I think the impatience comes with being a Primary School teacher) you'll want a house that's fully kitted out, I've been trying to argue my point with her that she'll get much more for her money, but she's the one with the said money and I'm the poor designer. I guess its sort of like buying a car with no tax or MOT, you can be fairly sure it'll be alright, but it might throw up some nasty surprises. I think the house prices will fall a little bit but there's a shit load of people buying to let, I went down a road near Fallowfield (prime student area) the other day and there were about 10 houses with to let signs and only one to sell, these are the douches who are keeping the prices high so us young ones can't get on the property ladder unless we are prepared to live on a council estate with scroungers with 5 kids. So in summary, I reckon house prices will more or less stay the same at the bottom to mid end and go lower at the top end.

06-10-11, 11:15 AM	#10
foxracing Grown up member Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Alberta, Canada Posts: 165	It's a well known fact that houses in this country are over valued by at least 40%. Hopefully they will all drop to their true value and then people can afford to buy again.